Adult mortality rate worldwide 'has worsened'

Progress in helping people live longer being undone by Aids, smoking and obesity: Study

The study on adult mortality rates shows a widening gap between countries with the highest and lowest rates. -- ST FILE PHOTO

WASHINGTON: Aids, smoking and obesity are reversing any progress made in helping people live longer around the world, with mortality rates worsening over the past 20 years in 37 countries, new research has found.

According to the study published yesterday in The Lancet medical journal, a survey from 1970 to this year found that there was a widening gap between countries with the highest and lowest premature death rates in adults aged 15 to 60.

Dr Christopher Murray of the University of Washington in Seattle and his colleagues wrote: 'Every year, more than 7.7 million children die before their fifth birthday; however, over three times that number of adults - nearly 24 million - die under the age of 60 years.'

The findings are in contrast to the trends in child and maternal mortality, where rates are mostly dropping worldwide. Health officials have long thought that if child deaths were decreasing and health systems were improving, adult deaths would similarly decline.

'Worldwide, the 1990s reversal of the trend in adult mortality is probably a result of the HIV pandemic and the sharp rise in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union,' the researchers wrote.

'The prevention of premature adult death is just as important for global health policy as the improvement of child survival.'

The study found that men in Iceland and women in Cyprus have the lowest risk of dying worldwide.

The United States, where 60 per cent of adults are overweight or obese, slipped in overall rankings, from 34th in the world in female mortality and 41st in male mortality in 1990, to 49th for women and 45th for men this year - behind Chile, Tunisia and Albania. But mortality rates improved spectacularly in South Korea. They fell by 50 per cent over the same period.

Dr Murray and his colleagues used a complex formula to calculate the probability that someone aged 15 will die before reaching 60 years. They believe their method paints a more accurate picture than methods used by the United Nations, and can be used to compare countries with populations of different ages. They found that in the 40 years since 1970, adult mortality risk fell by 34 per cent among women and 19 per cent in men globally.

The researchers said: 'One of the most striking patterns is the rapid decline in adult female mortality in South Asia. In 1970 this was the region with the highest risk of female mortality and by this year, (the risk of dying before age 60) had fallen by 56 per cent.'

But some places had notable reversals in rank, including the former Soviet Union. Russia has fallen from 43rd place for female mortality in 1970 to 121st.

'Research shows that across countries, inequality in adult mortality has grown to the point where adult men in Swaziland - the country with the worst mortality rate - now have a probability of premature death that is nine times the mortality rate of the best country, Cyprus,' Dr Murray's team wrote.

Dr Murray said he wanted to study adult mortality globally because so much emphasis goes into helping very young children survive.

REUTERS, ASSOCIATED PRESS